EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
- The overall Trend: Neutral.
- Today’s Euro/Dollar Support Levels: 1.1270 – 1.1200 – 1.1140.
- Today’s Euro/Dollar Resistance Levels: 1.1355 – 1.1400 -1.1480.
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
- Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1240 with a target of 1.1400 and a stop-loss at 1.1160.
- Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1420 with a target of 1.1200 and a stop-loss at 1.1500.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:
As expected, the EUR/USD pair has been trading within very narrow ranges, avoiding a breakdown below the 1.1300 support level to avoid losing upward opportunities. According to reliable trading platforms, the euro has performed well so far, primarily due to increased expectations of German fiscal spending and Trump’s tariffs. However, the EUR/USD pair’s performance has not shown any significant progress over the past four weeks, due to the absence of major developments on the trade and interest rates front.
On the monetary policy front, the European Central Bank continues to cut interest rates amid economic uncertainty and an expected slowdown due to tariffs. In contrast, the Federal Reserve is holding interest rates steady amid uncertainty about inflation. Short positions in the US dollar are also overstretched, so there is a risk of short selling if the market reprices its dovish outlook on the Fed.
Trading Tips:
Be a good observer of the factors affecting the Forex market, as the EUR/USD will remain in a narrow range, and you will not find strong movement except after the easing of global trade and geopolitical tensions.
Technical Outlook for the Euro/Dollar:
Based on the performance on the four-hour chart, we see that the EUR/USD pair is consolidating at a key support area around 1.1275, where we can also spot a trend line convergence. Here, we expect buyers to intervene with a clear risk below the trend line, preparing for a rise towards the 1.16 resistance level. Conversely, sellers will look for a bearish breakout to begin targeting the 1.09 support level later.
Regarding the movement of technical indicators, there is no change from what was mentioned previously, as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is moving away from the midline and is at a reading of 60, which confirms the bulls’ holding but awaiting more stimulus before moving towards the overbought zone. However, at the same time, the MACD indicator for the 12.26 closing is leaning downwards.
Will the Euro Price Rise Soon?
According to the view of Forex market experts, the euro price may benefit from the de-dollarization of foreign exchange reserves, but more work needs to be done to increase the attractiveness of euro-denominated assets, according to currency analysts. If central banks’ appetite for the euro returns to what it was in the early 2000s, euro-denominated foreign exchange reserves could increase by up to around €450 billion. As is known, de-dollarization boosts the net issuance of US Treasury bonds, which are mainly acquired by domestic private sector investors, with major Asian investors exiting the market. For Europe to attract these flows, it must provide a high-quality and liquid asset pool to compete with US Treasury bonds.
On the economic front, according to the economic calendar data, the euro will be affected today by the announcement of German economic figures, led by the industrial production rate and trade balance figures, at 9:00 AM Egypt time. On the US dollar side, the number of weekly jobless claims, the non-farm productivity rate, and the employment cost index will all be announced at 3:30 PM Egypt time.
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