- The US JOLTS data will be watched closely ahead of the release of the April employment report on Friday.
- Job openings are forecast to edge lower to 7.5 million in March.
- The state of the labor market is a key factor for Fed officials when setting policy.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will be released on Tuesday by the United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The publication will provide data about the change in the number of job openings in March, alongside the number of layoffs and quits.
JOLTS data is scrutinized by market participants and Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers because it can provide valuable insights into the supply-demand dynamics in the labor market, a key factor impacting salaries and inflation. Job openings have been declining steadily since reaching 12 million in March 2022, indicating a steady cooldown in labor market conditions. In January, the number of job openings came in above 7.7 million before declining below 7.6 million in February.
What to expect in the next JOLTS report?
Markets expect job openings to retreat to 7.5 million on the last business day of March. With the growing uncertainty surrounding the potential impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade policy on the economic and inflation outlook, Federal Reserve policymakers have been voicing their concerns over a cooldown in the labor market.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said last week that he is worried that businesses could start laying workers off because of the uncertainty caused by trade frictions. On a similar note, Fed Governor Christopher Waller told Bloomberg that he would not be surprised to see more layoffs and higher unemployment. “Easiest place to offset tariff costs is by cutting payrolls,” Waller explained.
It is important to note that the JOLTS report refers to the end of March, while the official Employment report, which will be released on Friday, measures data for April. Regardless of the lagging nature of the JOLTS data, a significant decline in the number of job openings could feed into fears over a weakening labor market. In this scenario, the US Dollar (USD) is likely to come under renewed selling pressure with the immediate reaction.
On the flip side, a sharp increase, with a reading above 8 million, could suggest that the labor market remains relatively stable. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that markets don’t expect the Fed to cut the policy rate at the next policy meeting in May, while pricing in a nearly 60% probability of a 25 basis points (bps) reduction in June. Hence, the market positioning suggests that a positive surprise could support the USD by causing investors to lean toward another policy hold after May.
When will the JOLTS report be released and how could it affect EUR/USD?
Job opening numbers will be published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, shares his technical outlook for EUR/USD:
“EUR/USD clings to a bullish stance but loses momentum, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart declining to the 60 region. On the downside, the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the February-May uptrend and the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) forms a key support area at 1.1230-1.1200 ahead of 1.1050 (Fibonacci 38.% retracement) and 1.1000 (static level, round level).”
“Looking north, the first resistance level could be spotted at 1.1400 (static level) before 1.1500 (round level, static level) and 1.1575 (April 21 high).”
US-China Trade War FAQs
Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living.
An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies.
The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.