In an otherwise relatively quiet week, the USD found some support from the continued positive risk environment, bolstered by de-escalating tariff headlines – even as JOLTS job openings saw a larger-than-expected decline in March (ahead of Liberation Day), Danske Bank’s FX analysts report.
Tariff relief lifts risk sentiment, weighs on havens
“The greenback continues to move in tandem with US Treasuries and equities, while diverging from traditional safe havens such as the CHF, JPY, and gold, all of which declined yesterday.”
“In addition to regional CPI prints from Germany and France – which could draw interest following Spain’s higher-than-expected print yesterday – today’s main focus for EUR/USD will likely be the preliminary Q1 US GDP release.”
“We forecast a -0.1% q/q AR contraction, primarily driven by front-loaded imports ahead of anticipated tariff measures. While the print is backward-looking, it may still catch the market’s attention amid economic policy uncertainty.”