By Robert Petrucci
Fact-checker Justin Paolini
The USD/MXN has continued to show an ability to traverse to lower values, but day traders should not get over confident because intraday volatility remains steady and occasional reversals higher a part of the trading landscape.
The USD/MXN is near 19.20600 as of this writing. The U.S is observing Memorial Day and this will limit trading volumes in Forex today. However, the ability of the USD/MXN to traverse lower and correlate to USD weakness globally shows financial institutions remain calm regarding the outlook for the Mexican Peso. President Trump certainly has the ability to throw a grenade into the markets with his rhetoric, but perhaps larger traders have grown more accustomed to the noise at this juncture.
The USD/MXN did climb higher on Wednesday and Thursday of last week. A high of nearly 19.45450 was seen on Thursday, but a strong reversal lower did build momentum and by Friday a low of nearly 19.22000 was being seen going into the weekend. The U.S holiday today will create the potential for sudden spikes, and day traders are advised to be cautious as limited volumes sometimes meets large orders which can cause Forex tantrums.
Lower USD/MXN and Surviving the Trump Storm
The USD/MXN is now traversing values seen in the middle of October 2024. Long-term charts now have to be studied as traders visualize where the USD/MXN could potentially head. While President Trump continues to issue a flurry of rhetoric from the White House, Mexico has seemingly been able to escape scorn and this has led to bearish momentum building and consideration of lower values for the USD/MXN.
Traders certainly need to remain realistic, but thinking about the potential of a USD/MXN that retests the 19.00000 is not out of the question – but maybe not over the near-term. Because of today’s holiday traders should keep their price targets extremely limited. Tomorrow’s trading may prove volatile upon the return of U.S trading firms. Wednesday the U.S Fed will release its Meeting Minutes from last month. And on Thursday U.S growth numbers will be published.
Speculative Wagers in the USD/MXN
The USD has shown weakness across Forex since the first week of April. The fear of tariffs still exists within financial institutions, but they are becoming adjusted to bursts of rhetoric. Yes, there will still be additional noise from the White House.
The ability of the USD/MXN to move lower in a steady manner correlates to global Forex and may continue.
Traders who are conservative and want to seek lower values may want to use slight reversals higher that touch perceived technical resistance a way to launce selling positions.
Until tomorrow the lack of large volumes in Forex will mean wider spreads for the USD/MXN and the potential of sudden volatile movements.
USD/MXN Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 19.22100
Current Support: 19.19990
High Target: 19.26700
Low Target: 19.17050
Ready to trade our Forex daily analysis and predictions? Here are the best forex brokers in Mexico to choose from