The USD/MXN was testing its lower realms at this time last week while hovering near the 18.90000 vicinity, but that has all changed and this early morning’s gap higher has taken the currency pair above 19.20000 once again.
The USD/MXN was trading near the 19.16125 mark as Friday’s trading closed. The higher ground attained starting on Tuesday of last week when the 19.00000 vicinity was challenged, then penetrated and saw sustained trading above turned into greater buying momentum on early Friday. The lows at this time last week were near the 18.90000 ratio.
Risk appetite however turned from confident to rather poor early last week as the Middle East conflict generated more negative sentiment. What had been a rather strong bearish performance by the USD/MXN began to lose power and buying certainly started being seen. Early this morning’s USD/MXN trading saw another gap higher and an apex near the 19.32950 vicinity, before reversing lower. The price of the USD/MXN as of this writing is near 19.23775 with fast fluctuations being demonstrated.
Day Trading and Betting
Day traders need to remain cautious about their own predictions regarding what is going to happen in Forex based only on their perceptions. Large financial institutions are nervous and this is causing whipsaw movement in Forex. The USD/MXN may look too highly priced, but sellers of the currency pair need to use risk management, this to protect against more sudden surprises that can cascade through Forex and global markets.
Optimists who believe that tranquil trading will be seen in the coming hours may want to wager on the potential of downside momentum. However, betting on selling to pick up steam while may be proven correct eventually, may not match the time parameters needed for speculators. The near-term is likely to stay rather dynamic. One intriguing perspective regarding the USD/MXN is the relationship to Iran’s oil supply and Mexico’s production. If Iran were to cause problems with its own supply of Crude Oil, this could open the door to more selling of Mexican energy.
Short-Term Scenarios and Staying Realistic
However, this actually will not affect short-term USD/MXN scenarios very much. If Iranian Crude Oil continues to be supplied uninterrupted, this will help the global economy and cause the USD/MXN to actually power lower based on positive sentiment.
- The USD/MXN remains correlated to the broad Forex market, and if financial institutions regain calm, the currency pair may start to see its lower elements traversed again.
- But short-term traders should remain realistic, looking for a sudden drop to the 19.00000 level is asking too much.
- Bets on lower momentum based on an optimistic outlook need stop losses, and they also need take profit targets that do not look for targets that are too far away. Cash out profits when they are made.
USD/MXN Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 19.24100
Current Support: 19.21300
High Target: 19.27200
Low Target: 19.17600
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