The USD/RUB remains within the lower part of its long-term trading range, but increased skepticism about the likelihood of an agreement between Russia and the Ukraine may start to cause problems.
The USD/RUB is near the 84.3800 ratio as this writing. The currency pair has been able to sustain the lower realms of its long-term range rather well. The USD/RUB did flirt with a low of nearly 82.7000 momentarily yesterday but then bounced to a high around the 85.2600 ratio. Spreads in the currency pair have widened and this is likely due to signs of increased tension about the potential of an agreement between Russia and Ukraine in the coming weeks.
While yesterday’s ability for the USD/RUB to test the 83.0000 level certainly shows that financial institutions remain rather comfortable, the currency pair has not been able to display any outward signs of strong bearish sentiment the past two weeks. The USD/RUB touched a low of nearly 81.0200 on the 18th of March. The currency pair has essentially traded sideways while flirting with higher ratios.
Focus Elsewhere Currently for U.S White House
As President Trump gets set to announce his tariff decisions today, his focus has seemingly turned away from speaking about the Ukrainian war with Russia near-term. Financial institutions will react to the storms created today via Trump’s pronounced ‘Liberation Day’, but what might prove noteworthy is that the USD/RUB may not see much consequences regarding the tariff pronouncements today. The currency pair likely will remain locked within the considerations of potential outcomes via ongoing Russian and Ukrainian negotiations.
And this is where things become tricky, because for the moment it appears a stalemate may be developing as Russia and the Ukraine are showing stubborn tactics. Which sets the table for a USD/RUB that may create durable support in the near-term and allow speculators to search for tiny move upwards. Additional impetus is likely sought by financial institutions regarding optimistic outlooks.
Until More Optimism a Choppy Range for the USD/RUB
Day traders of the USD/RUB who seek price movements via technical considerations may want to anticipate the potential that choppy results will be seen near-term. Russia and the Ukraine will have to show they are willing to make concessions in order to achieve a peace agreement and for the moment this remains hard fought.
The White House will certainly turn its attention to the war between Russia and the Ukraine again in the coming days, but today and tomorrow President Trump’s attention will likely be elsewhere.
The USD/RUB may provide short-term speculators an opportunity to use lower support ratios as a place to look for upwards traction with quick hitting trades near-term.
USD/RUB Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 83.9000
Current Support: 83.2000
High Target: 85.1000
Low Target: 82.8000
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