Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today
Risk 0.50%.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 37.90.
- Set a stop-loss order below 37.45.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 40.50.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 40.35.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 41.50.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 37.15.
Turkish Lira Analysis:
The USD/TRY exchange rate stabilized around 37.88 lira, the same levels at which the Central Bank has been supporting the Turkish currency’s stability for about two weeks. This follows violent fluctuations in the Turkish currency after the arrest of the mayor of Istanbul, who represents one of the opposition’s symbols and the Republican People’s Party candidate in the 2028 presidential elections, in what was described as a politically motivated operation.
The Turkish currency has not witnessed any changes over the past two weeks, despite strong fluctuations in global markets since yesterday due to reactions to the increase in US tariffs by the US President. The lira also stabilized despite the continuing political turmoil in Turkey with ongoing opposition protests. This reflects the extent of the monetary and financial authorities’ intervention in the country to impose stability on the lira’s exchange rate, with the Central Bank injecting approximately $26 billion by March 24 in an attempt to contain the sharp decline in the exchange rate, while the amount injected into the markets this week is unknown.
The Central Bank has approved a number of measures, including selling lira-denominated futures contracts against the dollar, raising the overnight lending rate to 46%, suspending weekly repo auctions, and issuing short-term liquidity instruments. Despite the exit of a large number of foreign investments. These developments come at a time when the government is seeking to implement a strict monetary policy to contain inflation, led by Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek and Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz, along with the Central Bank, who have succeeded in recent months in restoring some market confidence after a period of unstable economic policies before 2023. Despite the turmoil, officials have affirmed their full commitment to continuing these policies without change.
In the medium term, pressures on the Turkish currency are expected to continue amid ongoing political uncertainty, along with external pressures resulting from US President Donald Trump’s trade policies.
TRYUSD technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
Technically, the USD/TRY pair has maintained its sideways movement, with the pair stabilizing within a rectangle pattern in conjunction with price variance around the 50-period moving average on the four-hour timeframe, indicating short-term stability. Turkish lira price forecasts include price stability if it maintains its movement within the rectangle range, while in the longer term, the Turkish currency is expected to decline, targeting 38.50 and 39.00 lira levels, respectively.
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