Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today
– Risk 0.50%.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 37.90.
- Set a stop-loss order below 37.45.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 40.50.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 40.35.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 41.50.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 37.15.
Turkish Lira Analysis:
The US Dollar price against the Lira remained stable without significant changes at the beginning of this week’s trading, extending the stability the pair has witnessed for over four weeks. The Dollar price is fluctuating around the 38 Turkish Lira level, supported by the Central Bank and local banks that continue to inject dollars into the markets to maintain the currency’s value without being affected by the volatility in global markets caused by US President Trump’s decisions.
In this regard, the Turkish Minister of Treasury and Finance, Mehmet Şimşek, affirmed his country’s strong position compared to many emerging economies in facing escalating global protectionism, thanks to its limited reliance on exports and its greater dependence on domestic consumption and investment. He pointed out that Turkey continues to invest in strategic projects such as the “Middle Corridor” and the “Development Road” to enhance its role as a regional logistics hub. Şimşek also explained that Turkey’s debt-to-GDP ratio is low compared to other countries, which strengthens its ability to overcome global volatility. He also stressed that inflation is witnessing a continuous decline, with expectations of a limited impact of the Lira’s depreciation on prices, offset by a decline in energy prices.
Within the framework of technological transformation plans, Şimşek pointed to the launch of a program focusing on priority investments in eight sectors until the end of the current decade, with expansions in artificial intelligence, fifth-generation networks, and nuclear energy. He also stressed the importance of returning to a global trade system based on rules, despite the current challenges.
Regarding data, figures released last week revealed a 1.6% month-on-month decline in Turkey’s industrial production during February, after adjustment for seasonal and calendar factors, reflecting a slowdown in domestic industrial activity at the beginning of the year. The manufacturing index – which represents the largest part of industrial production – recorded a similar decrease of 1.6% during the same period, reinforcing signals of a downturn in the production sector. On an annual basis, data from the Turkish Statistical Institute showed a 1.9% contraction in industrial production compared to February of last year, reflecting a relative weakness in the pace of industrial growth.
TRYUSD technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
Technically, the USD/TRY pair remained stable within a narrow trading range around the 38 Lira level. With the price stabilizing within the rectangle pattern, it supports the sideways movement of the pair. At the same time, the price continued to move around the 50-period moving average on the four-hour timeframe, while the pair rose above the same average on the daily timeframe, reflecting medium-term stability within an overall upward trend for the pair. Turkish Lira price forecasts include a decline, with the pair targeting resistance levels at 38.50 and 39.00 Lira, respectively.
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