Weekly Forex Forecast - July 20th

I wrote on 13^th July that the best trades for the week would be:

Long of the EUR/USD currency pair following a daily close above $1.1806. This did not set up.
Long of the NASDAQ 100 Index following a daily close above 22,945. This set up on Thursday but ended the week lower by 0.15%.
Long of the S&P 500 Index following a daily close above 6,283.6. This set up on Thursday but ended the week lower by 0.10%.
Long of HG Copper futures following a daily close above $5.6855. This did not set up.
Long of Silver in USD terms. Unfortunately, Silver ended the week lower by 0.62%.
Long of Palladium in USD terms. This rose over the week by 1.16%.
Short of the AUD/JPY currency cross. This fell over the week by 0.01%.

The small overall win of 0.30% equals a gain of 0.04% per asset.

The news last week was dominated by a combination of Trump’s new tariffs, the question of whether President Trump will be able to execute the early removal of Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve, and US inflation and PPI (purchasing power index) data.

As the week began, there were reports that Trump was telling Republican members of Congress of an advanced plan to remove Powell. However, once the story leaked, Trump issued a statement saying it was “highly unlikely” Powell would be removed without a cause of misconduct. Trump is angry that Powell and the Fed are being very slow to cut the relatively high interest rate of 4.25% / 4.50%, which Trump sees as holding back economic growth and probably the stock market too, which in any case is already advancing to record highs.

The Powell story initially hit the US Dollar, but once it was denied the Dollar turned around and enjoyed yet another week of advances.

Other market drivers last week related to certain high-impact data releases, and helped send major US stock market indices to new record highs:

US CPI (inflation) – the data was conflicted, as the annualized rate rose a little more than expected, to 2.7%, but Core CPI, which is more closely watched by the Fed, rose by a fraction less than expected. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are now expecting only 2 rate cuts of 0.25% by the end of 2025, compared to the three which were expected just a few days ago.
US PPI – the lower-than-expected core CPI data was supported by lower-than-expected PPI (purchasing power index) data, which will not go unnoticed by the Fed. This data would logically strengthen the case for rate cuts soon.
US Retail Sales – this was much stronger than expected, showing that the American consumer is still spending.
UK CPI (inflation) – this was hotter than expected, with an annualized rate of 3.6% when only 3.4% was forecast.
Canadian CPI (inflation) – this was exactly as expected.
US Unemployment Claims – almost as expected.
Australian Unemployment Rate – this unexpectedly rose from 4.1% to 4.3% and sent the Aussie lower over the rest of the week.

The coming week has a relatively light program of high-impact data releases, but the European Central Bank policy meeting might be important, although a rate cut is not widely expected.

This week’s important data points, in order of likely importance, are:

Japanese Upper House Elections – this might have an effect in boosting or reversing the recent strong weakness in the Japanese Yen.
European Central Bank – Main Refinancing Rate and Rate Statement
New Zealand CPI (inflation)
UK Retail Sales
Flash Services PMI & Manufacturing PMI in USA, Germany, UK, and France
US Unemployment Claims

For the month of July 2025, I forecasted that the EUR/USD currency pair will increase in value. The performance of this forecast so far is:

July 2025 Monthly Forecast Performance to Date

As there was an unusually large upwards price movement in the AUD/JPY Forex currency cross two weeks ago, I forecasted that it would fall in value last week. It did so, but by a barely noticeable 0.01%.

There were no unusually large price movements in currency crosses last week, so I make no weekly forecast this week.

The US Dollar was the strongest major currency last week, while the Japanese Yen was the weakest. Volatility declined strongly last week, with only 7% of the most important Forex currency pairs and crosses changing in value by more than 1%. Next week’s volatility is likely to remain the same or possibly increase.

You can trade these forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account.

Last week, the US Dollar Index printed a weakly bullish candlestick which continued the short-term bullish trend, but there was a notably large upper wick which suggests the long-term bearish trend might be ready to reassert itself.

The greenback got a boost last week from President Trump seemingly abandoning a plan to force out Fed Chair Jerome Powell who has led expectations of rate cuts over the rest of 2025 in a more cautious direction, which is probably the main reason why the Dollar has been bid over recent days. The recent tariff increases by the USA are also helping that.

Barring anything dramatic happening with Fed Chair Powell or Trump’s tariffs, I expect that the USD will have a quiet week this week, with the focus likely to be on other currencies such as the Japanese Yen.

The NASDAQ 100 Index rose firmly last week, printing a bullish candlestick and closing not very far from its weekly high after printing a new all-time high price.

Although there are good arguments for trend traders to remain long here, the rise of recent weeks and months has been very strong, leading to questions being asked about how much longer these breakouts to new record highs can continue.

Despite speculation over a bearish reversal, it is worth noting that when major US indices break to new highs, they more often than not show a strong rise over the next months, so there are good reasons for trend and momentum traders to be long here.

The S&P 500 Index performed very similarly to the NASDAQ 100 Index last week. Everything I wrote above about that tech index also applies here to the S&P 500 Index, with the exception that the S&P 500’s recent price action looks a little less bullish than that of the NASDAQ 100 Index. So if you are going to be trading these indices long, you might want to give a bit less weight to this Index, or even wait for Monday’s New York close before entering, and only enter if Monday’s close is higher than last Friday’s record high closing price.

Bitcoin in US Dollar terms enjoyed a strong recent breakout the week before last, rising by almost 10% in just a few days to a new record high just above $123,000. The price quickly fell back by quite a lot, but has risen again over the past few days to reach a level not far from the high above $123,000.

Bitcoin attracts a lot of excitement and interest due to its meteoric rise since 2017 – it has made many millionaires. Yet there are good reasons to be cautious and look to size trades respectful of high volatility as declines here can be very sudden and sharp.

I am already long of Bitcoin although I hold no special love of the digital currency, and I am sceptical of its true value. Yet, it would be foolish to ignore the potential of trend trades here as it keeps rising into blue sky.

I see a new record high New York close above $120,000 as a suitable trigger for entering a new long trade. It has been very clear that this round number is acting as significant resistance.

We saw the USD/JPY currency pair advance again last week, with the price closing quite near the 3-month high not far from the big round number at ¥150.00.

Bulls might be getting excited, but I think that taking a long trade here, even after a breakout beyond ¥150.00, which might set up this week, would be a premature move. This is because I like to see moving averages lined up correctly before entering any trend trade like this would be, and the 50-day moving average is still below the 100-day moving average.

However, if the moving averages do line up later this week and the price gets established above ¥150.00, I will enter a new long trade.

I think the US Dollar is likely to do little over this coming week – the real story here is the sustained and serious weakness in the Japanese Yen. Japan sees an election today for its Upper House of Parliament, and the result could have a major impact upon monetary policy. So, the election result might either produce a strong bearish reversal, or send the Yen falling even more.

Note that it is a public holiday in Japan tomorrow (Monday 21^st July), so it might be wise to wait for Tuesday’s Tokyo open before entering any new trade in this currency pair. If the governing coalition loses its Upper House majority, we could see the price shoot higher.

We have lately seen some relative strength in metals generally, especially precious metals. Silver is a bit of both. Silver held up quite well and last week began its advance again within its valid long-term bullish trend. The price is now very close to making another record high New York close.

I think a new long trade will make sense if we get a New York close above $38.41 per ounce, which was the highest daily close seen in over 13 years.

Gold is weaker but is also not very far from its record high price at $3,500 per ounce, and this partly supports a long trade in Silver, although I think a significant bullish breakout in Gold is not likely to happen over the coming week.

The daily price chart below shows a linear regression analysis, although this does not look like a strong price channel, suggesting high volatility is possible, so size any position you take here respectfully.

Palladium is one of the rarer precious metals. It has been rising on high volatility but exponentially, and last Friday saw it trade at a new near 2-year high price before it fell back strongly later in the day.

We have high volatility here and in precious metals generally, and for the sake of opportunity and diversification, it makes sense for trend traders to look to enter a new long trade if we see a daily (New York) close above $1,318 per ounce (based on the NYMEX futures market).

Palladium futures are expensive for most retail investors, and the metal is not offered by many CFD brokers. However, an affordable physical ETF is available as PALL.

Everything I wrote above about Palladium is also applicable to Platinum, a precious metal that for years was famous for being even more expensive than Gold, except for the fact that Platinum’s recent rise has been very strong and dramatic, and it is currently trading near its multi-year high price. These are bullish signs, although the question is open how much further this bullish move might run.

I am currently long of a Platinum ETF, and it will make sense to enter a new long trade if we see a daily close here above (based on the NYMEX future). The appropriate and affordable ETF to use is PPLT.

Copper made a high upwards leap the week before last upon President Trump’s declaration that all imports of Copper into the USA would be subject to a 50% tariff. These high prices in Copper have never been seen before – they are all-time highs, which is rare to see in a commodity.

The price sold off a little bit since what looked like a bullish spike, but the price started rising again at the end of last week and is not far from the previous week’s high, suggesting that there may be a bullish trend here which has legs. It is worth noting Copper was already in a bullish trend before the tariff announcement, which is a positive sign for long trades.

As a trend trader, I already entered a long position here. A careful course of action for anyone not already long might be entering a new long trade following a new all-time high New York closing price above $5.6855 in the copper future HG.